Introduction
For my fourth and final Apollo project this school year I chose the topic of the Electoral College, since it was an election year and I thought it was important to inform myself on what the Electoral College is and what role it plays in elections.
History
For the history portion of my project, I decided to create a map that would predict the 2024 election. To determine the outlook of the next Presidential election I examined and analyzed statistics from the 2012, 2016, and 2020 election. While looking at statistics, I decided to mainly focus on states with the most electoral votes and the swing states. These states included Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
Since the 2000 election, Arizona has voted Republican, until this year. While looking at statistics, I noticed that Arizona has slowly been switching to voting for the Democratic candidate. For example, in the 2012 election 54.2% of voters in Arizona voted for the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. However, in 2016 there was a significant change. During the 2016 election only 48.1% of voters voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. That means that 6.1% of Republican supporters during the 2012 election switched to voting for the Democratic candidate in 2016. During the 2020 election, Arizona officially switched to a majority Democraic state when 49.0% of voters voted Republican and 49.4% of voters voted Democratic. Based on these statistics, I predict that Arizona will probably vote for the Democratic candidate, based on the fact that they have slowly been switching to voting Democratically. However, since the election was so close in that state this past election, I think it will mainly depend on the candidates who are running in 2024.
Since the mid 90’s, Florida has been unpredictably switching back and forth from Democratic to Republican, which makes Florida a swing state. In recent years Florida has voted for the Republican candidate. The last time Florida voted for a Democratic candidate was in 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by 50.0%. In the 2016 election 48.6% of voters in Florida voted for Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and in 2020 that percentage went up by 2.6%, making the percentage 51.2%. Based on the fact that in recent years Florida voters have been increasingly voting for the Republican candidate, I believe that Florida will also vote Republican in the 2024 election.
For the past six elections, Georgia voters have mainly voted for the Republican president. However, during the 2020 election majority of voters in Georgia voted for the Democrativ candidate, Joe Biden. The past election in Georgia was very close with 49.5% of voters voting for the Demoraticly and 49.3% of voters voting Republicanly. Although the majority of voters in Georgia voted Democratically, based on the fact that the election was incredibly close and their history of mainly voting Republicanly, I believe that in the 2024 election Georgia will also vote for the Republican candidate.
Michigan is another swing state. For years Michigan has been going back and forth between voting majority Democratic and Republican. During the 2012 election, the majority of Michigan voters voted for the Demicratic candidate, Barack Obama, by 54.3%. However, during the 2016 election majority of Michigan voters voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. This was a surprising change considering since the 1992 election majority of Michigan voters have voted for the Democratic candidate. During the recent 2020 election majority of Michigan voters switched back to voting Democratically by 50.6%. Based on the fact that for the most 2 decades voters in Michigan have mainly voted Democratically, I believe that Michigan will also vote Democratically in 2024.
Pennsylvania is another swing state. Since the 1930’s Pennsylvania voters have been switching back and forth from voting for Democratic and Republican candidates. In 2012, the majority of Pennsylvanians voted for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. However, in 2016 the majority of voters in Pennsylvania switched from voting Democratically to Republican. During the 2016 election 48.2% of voters in Pennsylvania voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. However, during the 2020 election majority of Pennsylvanians switched back to voting Democratically by 50%. Looking at the statistics from the past three elections, I think the winning party mainly depends on the candidates running for President. However, based on statistics of the election over the past century, the majority of the votes from the election have been Democratic. That leads me to believe that the Democratic candidate will win the next election.
Wisconsin is another swing state. Wisconsin voters have been switching back and forth from voting for Democratic and Republican candidates. Recently though they have been consistently voting Democratic, except for the 2016 election. In 2016, Republican candidate, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by 47.2%. However, during the 2020 election, Democratice candidate, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by 49.4%. Based on statistics of the election over the past century, the majority of the votes from the election have been Democratic. That leads me to believe that the Democratic candidate will win the next election.
Texas is a state that has been majority Republica for years. However, in recent years, the state of Texas has slowly been becoming less Republican. During the 2012 election, Republican candidate Mitt Ramney won the state by 57.2%. During the 2016 election that percentage dropped by 5%, meaning that Republican candidate, Donald Trump won Texas by 52.2%. During the 2020 election, that percentage dropped only slightly by 0.2%, meaning that Donal Trump won the state by 52%. Based on these statistics, I believe that the Republican candidate will win Texas. However, I also believe that in a few years Democratic candidates will have a chance of winning Texas.
Opposite of Texas, California is known as a majority Democratic state, and the percentages are continuing to rise! During the 2012 election, Democratic candidate Barack Obama won California by 59.3%. During the 2016 election, that percentage rose by 2.2%, meaning that Democratic candidate, Hilary Clinton, won California by 61.5%. During the 2020 election, that percentage then rose by 2%, meaning the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, won California by 63.5%. Based on these statistics, I’m very confident that Democrats will win California once again.
States such as New York, Washington, Hawaii, Virginia, New Mexico, and others have consistently voted Democratically in the past, which is why I predicted that they would vote Democratically again in 2024.
Meanwhile, states such as Alabama, Alaska, Montana, Utah, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and others have voted for the Republican candidates in the past, which is why I predicted that they would vote for the Repiblican candidate again in 2024.
After adding up all of the Electoral College votes, I have predicted that the Democratic candidate will win in 2024 with 295 electoral votes.
Below is a drawing of what I predict the 2024 Electoral College map will look like.
Since the 2000 election, Arizona has voted Republican, until this year. While looking at statistics, I noticed that Arizona has slowly been switching to voting for the Democratic candidate. For example, in the 2012 election 54.2% of voters in Arizona voted for the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. However, in 2016 there was a significant change. During the 2016 election only 48.1% of voters voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. That means that 6.1% of Republican supporters during the 2012 election switched to voting for the Democratic candidate in 2016. During the 2020 election, Arizona officially switched to a majority Democraic state when 49.0% of voters voted Republican and 49.4% of voters voted Democratic. Based on these statistics, I predict that Arizona will probably vote for the Democratic candidate, based on the fact that they have slowly been switching to voting Democratically. However, since the election was so close in that state this past election, I think it will mainly depend on the candidates who are running in 2024.
Since the mid 90’s, Florida has been unpredictably switching back and forth from Democratic to Republican, which makes Florida a swing state. In recent years Florida has voted for the Republican candidate. The last time Florida voted for a Democratic candidate was in 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by 50.0%. In the 2016 election 48.6% of voters in Florida voted for Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and in 2020 that percentage went up by 2.6%, making the percentage 51.2%. Based on the fact that in recent years Florida voters have been increasingly voting for the Republican candidate, I believe that Florida will also vote Republican in the 2024 election.
For the past six elections, Georgia voters have mainly voted for the Republican president. However, during the 2020 election majority of voters in Georgia voted for the Democrativ candidate, Joe Biden. The past election in Georgia was very close with 49.5% of voters voting for the Demoraticly and 49.3% of voters voting Republicanly. Although the majority of voters in Georgia voted Democratically, based on the fact that the election was incredibly close and their history of mainly voting Republicanly, I believe that in the 2024 election Georgia will also vote for the Republican candidate.
Michigan is another swing state. For years Michigan has been going back and forth between voting majority Democratic and Republican. During the 2012 election, the majority of Michigan voters voted for the Demicratic candidate, Barack Obama, by 54.3%. However, during the 2016 election majority of Michigan voters voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. This was a surprising change considering since the 1992 election majority of Michigan voters have voted for the Democratic candidate. During the recent 2020 election majority of Michigan voters switched back to voting Democratically by 50.6%. Based on the fact that for the most 2 decades voters in Michigan have mainly voted Democratically, I believe that Michigan will also vote Democratically in 2024.
Pennsylvania is another swing state. Since the 1930’s Pennsylvania voters have been switching back and forth from voting for Democratic and Republican candidates. In 2012, the majority of Pennsylvanians voted for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. However, in 2016 the majority of voters in Pennsylvania switched from voting Democratically to Republican. During the 2016 election 48.2% of voters in Pennsylvania voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. However, during the 2020 election majority of Pennsylvanians switched back to voting Democratically by 50%. Looking at the statistics from the past three elections, I think the winning party mainly depends on the candidates running for President. However, based on statistics of the election over the past century, the majority of the votes from the election have been Democratic. That leads me to believe that the Democratic candidate will win the next election.
Wisconsin is another swing state. Wisconsin voters have been switching back and forth from voting for Democratic and Republican candidates. Recently though they have been consistently voting Democratic, except for the 2016 election. In 2016, Republican candidate, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by 47.2%. However, during the 2020 election, Democratice candidate, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by 49.4%. Based on statistics of the election over the past century, the majority of the votes from the election have been Democratic. That leads me to believe that the Democratic candidate will win the next election.
Texas is a state that has been majority Republica for years. However, in recent years, the state of Texas has slowly been becoming less Republican. During the 2012 election, Republican candidate Mitt Ramney won the state by 57.2%. During the 2016 election that percentage dropped by 5%, meaning that Republican candidate, Donald Trump won Texas by 52.2%. During the 2020 election, that percentage dropped only slightly by 0.2%, meaning that Donal Trump won the state by 52%. Based on these statistics, I believe that the Republican candidate will win Texas. However, I also believe that in a few years Democratic candidates will have a chance of winning Texas.
Opposite of Texas, California is known as a majority Democratic state, and the percentages are continuing to rise! During the 2012 election, Democratic candidate Barack Obama won California by 59.3%. During the 2016 election, that percentage rose by 2.2%, meaning that Democratic candidate, Hilary Clinton, won California by 61.5%. During the 2020 election, that percentage then rose by 2%, meaning the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, won California by 63.5%. Based on these statistics, I’m very confident that Democrats will win California once again.
States such as New York, Washington, Hawaii, Virginia, New Mexico, and others have consistently voted Democratically in the past, which is why I predicted that they would vote Democratically again in 2024.
Meanwhile, states such as Alabama, Alaska, Montana, Utah, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and others have voted for the Republican candidates in the past, which is why I predicted that they would vote for the Repiblican candidate again in 2024.
After adding up all of the Electoral College votes, I have predicted that the Democratic candidate will win in 2024 with 295 electoral votes.
Below is a drawing of what I predict the 2024 Electoral College map will look like.
Art
For the art portion of my project I created three Electoral College maps that hypothesized what the outcome of the 2020 election would have looked like if only Millennials, Generation-X, or Baby Boomers could vote.
The first map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Millennials could vote in the election. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Millennials could vote in the 2020 election Joe Biden would be elected as President with an Electoral College score of 447. That means that Donald Trump would loose the Presidential Election with a score of only 91. I was not overly surprised by these results. I figured that Millennials would be more likely to vote for Joe Biden, because I know from research and the news that the younger generations are more likely to vote Democratically. However, I did not expect Joe Biden to win the election with significantly more Electoral College votes compared to Donald Trump. I thought the Electoral College votes would be closer than what they were. I was also surprised that in states that have continuously voted Republican, such as Texas, Georgia, and Florida, Millennials were more likely to vote Democratically. I think this map shows and proves that are country really is slowly becoming more Democratic, meaning that in future elections it will be more and more likely that the Democratic Candidate will win.
The second map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Gen-X could vote in the election. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Gen-X could vote in the 2020 election Joe Biden would be elected President with an Electoral College score of 392. That would mean Donald Trump would loose the Presidential Election with a score of 146. The results of this hypothetical Electoral College map did not surprise me very much. I figured that the Electoral College score would be close because I know from research and from watching the news that Gen-Z is pretty divided when if comes to their political beliefs. However, I thought the Electoral College score would be a little closer than what it was.
The third and final map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Baby Boomers could vote. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Baby Boomers could vote in the 2020 election Donal Trump would be elected President with an Electoral College score of 345. This would mean Joe Biden would loose the 2020 election with an Electoral College score of 193. This results of this hypothetical Electoral College map did not surprise me at all. I know from research and from watching the news that Baby Boomers are more likely to vote Republican.
Below are images of the Electoral College maps I created.
The first map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Millennials could vote in the election. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Millennials could vote in the 2020 election Joe Biden would be elected as President with an Electoral College score of 447. That means that Donald Trump would loose the Presidential Election with a score of only 91. I was not overly surprised by these results. I figured that Millennials would be more likely to vote for Joe Biden, because I know from research and the news that the younger generations are more likely to vote Democratically. However, I did not expect Joe Biden to win the election with significantly more Electoral College votes compared to Donald Trump. I thought the Electoral College votes would be closer than what they were. I was also surprised that in states that have continuously voted Republican, such as Texas, Georgia, and Florida, Millennials were more likely to vote Democratically. I think this map shows and proves that are country really is slowly becoming more Democratic, meaning that in future elections it will be more and more likely that the Democratic Candidate will win.
The second map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Gen-X could vote in the election. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Gen-X could vote in the 2020 election Joe Biden would be elected President with an Electoral College score of 392. That would mean Donald Trump would loose the Presidential Election with a score of 146. The results of this hypothetical Electoral College map did not surprise me very much. I figured that the Electoral College score would be close because I know from research and from watching the news that Gen-Z is pretty divided when if comes to their political beliefs. However, I thought the Electoral College score would be a little closer than what it was.
The third and final map I created hypothesized what the 2020 election would have looked like if only Baby Boomers could vote. After doing a lot of research, I concluded that if only Baby Boomers could vote in the 2020 election Donal Trump would be elected President with an Electoral College score of 345. This would mean Joe Biden would loose the 2020 election with an Electoral College score of 193. This results of this hypothetical Electoral College map did not surprise me at all. I know from research and from watching the news that Baby Boomers are more likely to vote Republican.
Below are images of the Electoral College maps I created.
English
For the English portion of my project I wrote a speech which argues and informs people about why the Electoral College is no longer needed. I began my speech by informing the reader on what the Electoral College is and what role it plays in elections. From there a gave an example that shows a time where the Electoral College hurt out country by going against the popular vote. After that I explained a solution that would help to decease the problems of the Electoral College. Throughout my speech, I tried to incorporate rhetorical devices. If you would like to read my speech on abolishing the Electoral College, click the button below.